Self catering visitor numbers for 2009

What will demand be like for UK self catering holidays next year? There are a number of factors in play and the overall position will be driven by a combination of them.

Factors driving demand up

• Less money in people's pockets leading to downtrading from hotels to self catering
• Airline capacity is likely to fall next year as carriers merge or close - read Times article - leading to increased cost of overseas holidays
• Green concerns
• People choosing to have a number of close at home short breaks over extended holidays
• Weak pound making UK more attractive to overseas guests
• Weak pound making overseas holidays more expensive to UK travellers
  

Factors driving demand down

• Less money in people's pockets leading to downtrading from self catering to camping
• Credit crunch leading to holidays being cancelled altogether
• Flight costs making travel to UK more expensive for overseas guests
  
• The weather over the last 2 years

The outcome is hard to predict. If I were to have a bet I would say that, if the weather is good, demand will be up slightly overall. If the weather is the same as this year then visitor numbers will probably hold at this year's levels, which for many operators has been slightly down on 2007.